Coronavirus Market Outlook

Last month we shared our thoughts on the outlook for the global economy and financial markets as the spread of COVID-19 was exploding around the world. Events have continued to unfold at a frenzied pace.  At times like this, it’s important for investors to not overreact, but remain objective and thoughtful, while also being nimble enough to act if conditions warrant action. Zevin Asset Management’s guiding principle has always been to invest in high quality securities that can endure during times like these, in an attempt to minimize major losses in our clients’ portfolios. To that end, we are closely monitoring this global health crisis, the numerous policy responses and financial market reaction, all within our longstanding investment process of assessing the macroeconomic, company and ESG risks.

Pressing Apple for change at The Oscars of capitalism

The media calls the shareholder meeting of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway “Woodstock for capitalists.” Apple’s annual meeting in California, which we attended late last month, should be called “The Oscars of capitalism.” The Apple shareholder meeting is exclusive (it’s difficult for investors to nab a ticket and Al Gore is in attendance), slickly produced in the gleaming “Steve Jobs Theater,” and surrounded by several layers of Secret Service-level security.

Climate Change: The Physical Risks

Climate change risk is a real concern for the world. Last year, scientists approached a consensus that our opportunity to reach the ambitious goal of curbing emissions to avoid global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial levels has come and gone. In the current climate, coral reefs are dying, deforestation is proceeding rapidly, and Australia has succumbed to a continental rash of fires.

A Tale of Two Sectors

2019 played out to be a year of extreme dichotomy in the U.S. and to a lesser extent the rest of the world. On the one hand, consumer confidence remained high and consumers continued to spend their growing wages, thanks to extremely low unemployment and rebounding real estate activity. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector fell into recession during the year as the global slowdown spread and intensified, and trade tensions continued to beat down manufacturers’ confidence (see Chart 1). To counteract the slowing economy and prolong the economic expansion, central banks worldwide provided huge amounts of monetary stimulus by cutting interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut policy rates three times in 2019, helping to right the inverted yield curve and, so far, appearing to have successfully avoided an economic hard landing. Likewise, a total of 35 central banks globally eased monetary policy in 2019.