AI is becoming part of the everyday cost of doing business. But as usage grows, the economics behind it are changing quickly
Our Senior Equity Analyst Richard Shih, CFA, looks at the emerging “Token Economy,” why a price war may be taking shape, and what falling AI costs could mean for companies and investors.
The first few months of 2026 have been bumpy for global markets, driven by a complicated mix of global tensions and economic news. Adding to this are concerns about the disruptive, and in some cases existential impact of artificial intelligence on certain business models. Specifically, the introduction of new AI driven tools has led to a material decline in the stocks of many established software companies.
The first few months of 2026 have been bumpy for global markets, driven by a complicated mix of global tensions and economic news. Adding to this are concerns about the disruptive, and in some cases existential impact of artificial intelligence on certain business models. Specifically, the introduction of new AI driven tools has led to a material decline in the stocks of many established software companies.
A very wise, thoughtful and exceptionally caring woman once told me “All dining tables should be round”. Puzzled, I asked her why? She responded matter-of-factly “because you can always squeeze in another body at a round table”. That spirit of inclusion has been lost to an overwhelming atmosphere of conflict and angst, resulting in a fragile economy that is top-heavy and brittle, propped up by a few while so many struggle. When we prioritize the well-being for the many rather than the luxury of the few, we create a more stable society and economy. We need to get back to the spirit of the round table, where everyone has a place.
Up, up, and away. The fourth quarter of 2025 extended a remarkable mid-decade run for global equities. While history has taught long-term investors to be pleased with average annual stock market returns of roughly 8–10%, the MSCI ACWI has delivered total returns in excess of 20% per year over the past three years—more than double what most would reasonably expect. This bull market has been fueled by a combination of factors: a resilient global economy, moderating inflation which allowed interest rates to move lower; a policy environment marked by tax relief and lighter regulation; a powerful surge in investment tied to artificial intelligence; and easing concerns around global trade and tariffs as the year progressed.
The striking disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street continues, mimicking the extreme polarization in our politics and society. As tariffs started to bite in Q2 and Q3 this year and the U.S. economy started to show signs of PTSD (President Trump Stress Disorder), equity markets around the world put in new highs. The S&P 500 has reached 28 new all-time highs so far in 2025, while conversely the U.S. labor market is weakening, inflation remains stubbornly elevated, economic uncertainty is flashing worry signals, and the leading economic index has contracted steadily dating back to mid-2022. Add to all this: rising U.S. national debt and government shutdown, the Federal Reserve’s sacred independence is under attack, and the global world order of mutually beneficial trade agreements and cooperation has been shattered by the current U.S. administration, creating global economic havoc. Yet, equities are hitting new highs. What in the world is going on?
