2004
September 27, 2004
Where to begin in this time of turmoil and turpitude? How about roughly 2,100 years ago? Julius Caesar had just been born. But, the Roman Republic had already transmuted into an entity that belied its name and its principles. The landed gentry, who had been the backbone of Roman citizenry as . . .
May 26, 2004
It remains difficult to produce these commentaries through the tears of shame and grief (but not surprise) at the unfolding news from the remote outposts of the American empire, and against the astonishingly egregious lies of the Bush Administration, supported, implicitly or explicitly by the . . .
January 12, 2004
The permanent “War on Terrorism” trudges across our TV screens wrapped in a spin of lies and various colored alerts. In this respect Orwell’s “1984” has finally arrived, and with it the War Against Democracy, whose victories at home are as real as the other . . .
2003
July 9, 2003
Whatever true things our last Investment Policy Memo may have said about the world, the war and the country, it was completely wrong about the stock market. On April 14th the market had risen more than 10% in the previous month. I was skeptical in word and in actual investment policy that it . . .
April 14, 2003
Now that an instantaneously famous victory has been won by the United States, even before the war was quite finished, it is appropriate to ask exactly what it is that has been won. And what has been lost. America now sits firmly astride the oil production facilities of Iraq, which covers the . . .
January 16, 2003
There is now no doubt that the U.S. is in the second year of an economic recovery, although most commentators continue to fret about how frail it is and thus likely to expire in its youth. As noted in my last Memo this recovery has been notably normal in every way. Growth has hovered steadily . . .
2002
April 16, 2002
As is often the case early in an economic and stock market recovery there is an abundance of alarming news on all fronts. The war on terrorism has spawned a war of terror against the Palestinians. America’s continuing shoot first response to 9/11 is breeding new terrorists by the country . . .
April 16, 2002
As is often the case early in an economic and stock market recovery there is an abundance of alarming news on all fronts. The war on terrorism has spawned a war of terror against the Palestinians. America’s continuing shoot first response to 9/11 is breeding new terrorists by the country . . .
January 25, 2002
From an investment perspective the most important news is that an economic recovery seems to be underway or getting underway right now. The stock market recovery that began in late September seems to have anticipated the economy with a typical three or four month lead. This is broadly consistent . . .
2001
October 16, 2001
The horrifying and quite unexpected events of September 11th dramatically changed the outlook for almost everything, including the economy and financial markets. To say this is commonplace but also true. Equally true but far less commonplace is the observation that the events of September 11 . . .
July 17, 2001
The business pages are full of gloomy news. Unemployment is rising. Profits are down sharply for many companies. Japan is back into its on-again/off-again twelve-year recession. Argentina is experiencing a currency crisis reminiscent of those that shook the world in 1997 and 1998. Every day . . .
April 11, 2001
Declines in stock market prices have been widespread, but not indiscriminate. Telephone, Internet and computer stocks have plummeted by astonishing percentages all over the world. Stocks of large companies in health care, food, insurance and other industries that are less affected by the . . .
2000
July 6, 2000
The U.S. economy has been showing the clearest signs in recent years that it is finally slowing down. Business investment spending is down. Auto sales, truck sales, home building, commercial construction are all down in the first half of this year. After a long spending spree consumers are . . .
April 12, 2000
The distinguishing characteristic of a bubble in financial markets is that, like its soap bubble counterpart, it bursts leaving behind a meager and ephemeral residue. In the case of soap bubbles our hopes sometimes soar momentarily and irrationally when a particular bubble goes farther, rises . . .
January 12, 2000
Since the spring of 1998 it has been a substantial challenge (at which I have failed) to make each quarterly investment policy letter sound different from the others.
For the eighth quarter in a row it remains true that I have avoided most large, U.S. multi-national growth stocks because . . .
1999
October 6, 1999
The spectacular stock market returns of 1995 through 1998 seem to have ended. Most large, multinational companies with reputations for consistent, high growth of their businesses have been disappointing investments for the past year and one half. Walt Disney, Phillip Morris, Coca-Cola, Gillette, . . .
July 14, 1999
For most of the past year and one-half my approach has been to reduce ownership of the extremely high-priced and vulnerable businesses of the largest American, multi- national growth companies. Since the end of April this group of stocks has declined in price while the market continued to . . .
February 8, 1999
In early October, I was still moving your portfolio away from stocks. In retrospect, starting exactly then, it would have been best to be 100% in stocks. The reasons stocks rebounded are clear although my mind was slow to grasp the entire picture. The Federal Reserve Bank and the central banks . . .
1998
December 8, 1998
The prices of large, successful, rapidly growing, multinational American companies are for the most part once again at new record levels relative to their earnings, assets and dividends. Is this pure speculative madness? Maybe. Has anything happened that might justify higher levels of stock . . .
