Q3 2025 Market Outlook

The striking disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street continues, mimicking the extreme polarization in our politics and society. As tariffs started to bite in Q2 and Q3 this year and the U.S. economy started to show signs of PTSD (President Trump Stress Disorder), equity markets around the world put in new highs. The S&P 500 has reached 28 new all-time highs so far in 2025, while conversely the U.S. labor market is weakening, inflation remains stubbornly elevated, economic uncertainty is flashing worry signals, and the leading economic index has contracted steadily dating back to mid-2022. Add to all this: rising U.S. national debt and government shutdown, the Federal Reserve’s sacred independence is under attack, and the global world order of mutually beneficial trade agreements and cooperation has been shattered by the current U.S. administration, creating global economic havoc. Yet, equities are hitting new highs. What in the world is going on?

Q3 2025 Impact Update

At Zevin Asset Management, we view our fiduciary duty to our clients as inseparable from our responsibilities as global citizens. Through this quarter’s update we hope to give our readers a window into how we continue to contribute to shaping a more sustainable and just economy while stewarding clients’ capital responsibly. 

 

From Parking Lots to Police Databases: Home Depot’s Data Privacy Dilemma 

Home Depot stores are an informal hub for day laborers and this summer became the sites of multiple ICE raids, putting workers and customers in danger. Home Depot’s partnership with Flock Safety, a private surveillance company whose automated license plate reader (ALPR) cameras track vehicles and feed data into massive police databases have fueled these raids

Immigration: An Asset, Not a Liability

As long-term investors, we view immigration as a powerful driver of economic innovation and long-term value creation. Despite escalating anti-immigrant sentiment and increased enforcement activities, immigrants—documented and undocumented alike—make substantial contributions to the U.S. tax base, labor force, consumer demand, and entrepreneurship. Immigrants paid $652 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2023¹, equivalent to 2.3% of U.S. GDP and more than the entire economies of countries like Belgium or Argentina. This capital is vital for public infrastructure, schools, healthcare, and retirement systems. Notably, undocumented immigrants pay a higher average effective tax rate than the top 1% of households.² 

529 Investment Accounts

A 529 plan, also called a Qualified Tuition Program, is a tax-advantaged investment vehicle designed to encourage saving for the education expenses of a designated beneficiary (a minor or adult student). The funds can be used for qualified education expenses at all forms of college, as well as trade schools and K–12 private school tuition, and even apprenticeship programs. Parents and grandparents often establish these accounts to start saving early for offspring and enjoy compounding investment gains to pay for the hefty education bills anticipated. As with many investment vehicles, these plans favor clients with financial security who can set aside money for future needs and can withstand the volatility and risk of participating in investment markets.

Q2 2025 Market Outlook

The second quarter of 2025 unfolded in a world of heightened volatility and unpredictability. Geopolitical tensions, abrupt policy shifts, and weakness in leading economic indicators tested the resilience of investors and the market. From escalating trade disputes to growing unease over democratic norms, the global environment became more difficult to navigate with ripple effects felt across economies and our daily lives.

The second quarter opened with President Trump’s announcement of “Liberation Day”. These reciprocal tariffs targeted key U.S. trade partners and immediately unsettled global markets. The fear of a broader trade war quickly spread, consumers were fearful of rising prices, and consumer confidence quickly tanked. As the quarter went on, we faced harsh deportation policies, DOGE actions, political violence, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, capping a period defined by volatility and a threat to American values.  In this environment of uncertain times, the resilience of investors and markets was tested like never before.